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The Youth Development Study (YDS) is a major longitudinal research project looking at drug use among adolescents in Northern Ireland. Following a cohort of young people over time, the study will explore the natural course, onset and cessation of adolescent drug use. Through repeatedly surveying the sample of young people, the research aims to comprehensively map out the "drug careers" of young people, particularly the developmental pathways that lead to increasingly problematic forms of drug use and abuse.

The study also aims to uncover the various environmentally mediated processes that shape these careers and pathways. This will involve the testing of causal processes that increase or decrease the vulnerability of young people to drug use and drug use problems. Such analysis should provide insights into why some young people use drugs while others do not.

Also for those who do use, it should provide insights into why, for some young people, it marks a transient phase that they soon grow out of, while for others, their drug use develops into a more serious social and health problem. YDS is also interested in young people who never use drugs and those who do not progress beyond experimental or recreational drug use. What is of interest among these groups is the process of resilience.

Methodology

The YDS is comprised of three distinct but overlapping samples of young people:

• A main sample of 3,500 Year 8 mainstream school children.
• A booster sample of around 100 children outside mainstream schooling.
• A series of qualitative studies with particular sub-populations. (See figure)

Empirical results from all parts of the study will be triangulated with each other and relevant established theories, in order to provide a unique corpus of knowledge on drug use and young people in Northern Ireland.

Sample

The main sample consists of 3,500 school children in Year 8 (aged 11-12). The children will be selected from schools in Belfast, Ballymena and Downpatrick, with Belfast schools comprising about two thirds of the sample. The interviews with the children will be conducted annually for three years in the first instance (in Years 8, 9 and 10).

A sample size of 3,500 should yield, in the longer term, a sufficient number of problem drug users to permit both bivariate and multivariate analysis of the developmental pathways to problem use. To maximise contact with problem drug users, the study will sample both high-risk spatial areas with known high prevalence rates for problem drug use, heroin in particular (Ballymena and Downpatrick), and a high risk population - children outside mainstream education (booster sample).

Booster sample

The booster sample is a regional sample of children in Year 8 who are being educated outside mainstream schools because of emotional or behavioural difficulties. These children can be considered to be at "high" risk of developing later drug use problems. This sample will be recruited from pupils in special schools, units or projects across Northern Ireland.

The achieved sample size will depend on the number of children referred for such educational placements in the school year 2000/2001. This sample will be important in the examination of drug use resilience, as they are known to have experienced multiple risks. For example, those excluded from school may be experiencing the first step in the direction of exclusion from society.

Qualitative studies

In addition to the main and booster quantitative surveys, the YDS team will undertake up to three in-depth studies with key associated sub-populations. The main sample is unlikely to yield a substantial number of young people injecting heroin and we have decided that the first supplementary study should be of injecting drug users (under 25 years) in Ballymena. It is likely that some of the other supplementary study respondents will be drawn from either, or both, of the main and booster samples.

The main aim of all the qualitative studies will be to:

• validate empirical findings from the main and booster samples on the specific mechanisms and processes linking risks and outcomes;
• assist with the interpretation of the meaning of statistical results by providing the team with hands-on experience in the field;
• collect data on various aspects of drug use behaviour that are beyond the scope of large-scale quantitative surveys.

Principal Investigator: Andrew Percy
Researchers: Kathy Higgins, Patrick McCrystal
Start Date: 1999 End Date: 2003 Status (ongoing)
Further Information: a.percy@qub.ac.uk or 028 9027 4610
www.qub.ac.uk/ss/cccr/projects/youth.html